NCAA tournament bracketology: Thursdays games to watch
A look at the highlights of Thursday’s schedule …
Maryland’s good to go: The Terrapins’ odd season took another weird twist. After spotting Michigan State an early 12-point lead, Maryland suffocated the Spartans to the tune of giving 14 points in 22 minutes. By then the Terps were up 18 and on their way to a 68-57 victory in the second round of the Big Ten tournament.
Armed now with a pair of victories over Michigan State — not to mention victories at Illinois, Rutgers and Wisconsin and a home defeat of Purdue — Maryland (16-12) should enjoy a stress-free Selection Sunday. As for Michigan State (15-12), it could find itself vulnerable to getting shoved into a play-in game, though its late charge (with defeats of Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan) could save it from that fate.
Syracuse will be waiting for its fate until Sunday. Leave it to the Orange, owners of a fairly unremarkable resume, to leave the ACC tournament without certainty on how it will be treated by the NCAA basketball committee.
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The Orange (16-9) blasted N.C. State on Wednesday, then lost on a buzzer-beater to ACC regular season champion Virginia on Thursday. Syracuse is still lacking high-end victories. It is still devoid of completely inexplicable outcomes besides losing to Pittsburgh at home — and compared to the shortcomings of teams at the edge of the field, that’s not particularly noteworthy.
So what is Syracuse to do? Root against every other borderline team, pray there isn’t a surprise winner in the half-dozen leagues still capable of producing a bid-snatcher and hope that having little bad besides a lack of high-end victories away from the Carrier Dome is enough to slip into the field.
Seton Hall lives on. The Pirates finally halted a four-game skid, dealing St. John’s a 77-69 overtime loss to effectively end the Red Storm’s NCAA hopes.
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Seton Hall (14-12) still has work to do, and Georgetown’s upset of Villanova means the Pirates might have even more to accomplish than anticipated. The Pirates might have been all right with a high-end neutral court defeat of the Big East regular season champions. Beating Georgetown wouldn’t provide nearly the same boost to the resume.
Even still, Kevin Willard’s team isn’t making the NCAA tournament without beating the Hoyas on Friday night.
Mountain West quarterfinal: Boise State vs. Nevada (5:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network): Things were going so well for Boise State. The Broncos were 18-4 and in Mountain West contention before getting swept at San Diego State (not so bad) and then losing at home to Fresno State (very bad). That Quadrant 4 loss might bust the Broncos, but they at least have a chance to do some work in Las Vegas this week.
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Bracket impact: Boise State is a truly borderline case as Selection Sunday approaches. The Broncos can’t afford a loss to Nevada, a team it already lost to twice in the regular season.
Pac-12 quarterfinal: UCLA vs. Oregon State (5:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network): UCLA’s profile is straight out of the do-no-harm textbook. The Bruins (17-8) haven’t done anything egregiously foolish, but they’ve still dropped three in a row and face a nondescript Oregon State bunch in what will wind up a borderline Quadrant 2/Quadrant 3 game. UCLA is just 5-8 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games combined, so it doesn’t have an overwhelming profile as it opens its time at the Pac-12 tournament.
Bracket impact: The Bruins probably don’t need extra scrutiny applied to a resume that features a defeat of Colorado at home, a sweep of Arizona and … not a whole lot else. They’ll definitely flirt with at least play-in territory if they fall to the 14-12 Beavers.
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Big Ten second round: Rutgers vs. Indiana (6:30 p.m., BTN): Rutgers (14-10) is making the tournament for the first time in 30 years (though it was going to be in last year, too). Indiana (12-14) … will not be in the field, unless it rattles off a four-game winning streak this week. The question here is whether the Scarlet Knights are in danger of falling into play-in territory.
Bracket impact: A Rutgers victory should eliminate any doubt whether it will avoid in the First Four. The Scarlet Knights probably will even with a loss, but they’d still be slightly vulnerable to that fate if a spate of surprise conference tournament winners pushed them down the at-large board a little.
Mountain West quarterfinal: Utah State vs. UNLV (9 p.m., CBS Sports Network): The Aggies (18-7) are the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West, and closed the regular season with four consecutive victories after a 2-4 slide. Like most of the league’s borderline teams, Utah State has work to do in Las Vegas.
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Bracket impact: A win keeps Utah State in the mix, though it won’t be of much use beyond getting it another game. A loss would probably finish the Aggies off as an NCAA candidate.
SEC second round: Mississippi vs. South Carolina (9:30 p.m., SEC Network): After an 8-8 start, Mississippi is 7-2 since the start of February with a victory over Tennessee and a sweep of Missouri. The Rebels’ profile is solid for a borderline team — 3-4 in Quadrant 1 games, 5-4 in Quad 2 games and 5-6 on the road, with a pair of Quad 3 losses (at home to Mississippi State and Georgia) the only real drawbacks.
Bracket impact: Two good days — against South Carolina and then LSU — should finish the job for the Rebels. One good day might get it done. A loss to 11th-seeded South Carolina (6-14) is just asking to be sent to the NIT.
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Mountain West quarterfinal: Colorado State vs. Fresno State (11:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network): Colorado State (17-5) is in better shape than Utah State and in a comparable spot to Boise State. In other words, the Rams need to win a couple games in Vegas to feel reasonably decent about their NCAA hops.
Bracket impact: Probably done with a loss, but still very much in the mix with a victory.
Field notes
Last four included: Saint Louis, Drake, Mississippi, Colorado State
First four on the outside: Boise State, Syracuse, Utah State, Xavier
Next four on the outside: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Duke, Stanford
Conference call: Big Ten (9), Atlantic Coast (7), Big 12 (7), Southeastern (7), Big East (4), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American Athletic (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)
Moving in: Mount St. Mary’s, Oral Roberts, Colorado State
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Moving out: Bryant, North Dakota State, Xavier
Bracket projection
West vs. East, South vs. Midwest
West region
(1) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (16) SOUTHLAND/Nicholls State-METRO ATLANTIC/Saint Peter’s
(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) LSU
(5) ATLANTIC COAST/Virginia vs. (12) Mississippi/Saint Louis
(4) Creighton vs. (13) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara
(3) Kansas vs. (14) PATRIOT/Colgate
(6) Tennessee vs. (11) UCLA
(7) MOUNTAIN WEST/San Diego State vs. (10) Louisville
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) COLONIAL/Drexel
Gonzaga will be the top overall seed in the field after getting into the barn with an unblemished record. … Mississippi (15-10) has won seven of nine, is 5-6 on the road and is a combined 8-8 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games (3-4 in Q1). The Rebels have work to do in the SEC tournament starting Thursday against South Carolina, but their profile holds up well against the edge of the field. …
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Kansas will be without forward David McCormack, a second team all-Big 12 pick, for the conference tournament because of covid-19 protocols. That shouldn’t have a major impact on the Jayhawks’ seeding; they’ll end up within a seed line of their current projection as a No. 3. … Drexel will make its first NCAA appearance since 1996 after pulling away from Elon in the CAA title game. It is the Dragons’ fifth NCAA trip and first since joining the CAA.
East Region
(1) Illinois vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Mount St. Mary’s
(8) MISSOURI VALLEY/Loyola Chicago vs. (9) North Carolina
(5) Colorado vs. (12) BIG SOUTH/Winthrop
(4) BIG EAST/Villanova vs. (13) SOUTHERN/UNC Greensboro
(3) Oklahoma State vs. (14) HORIZON/Cleveland State
(6) PAC-12/Oregon vs. (11) Maryland
(7) Virginia Tech vs. (10) VCU
(2) SOUTHEASTERN/Alabama vs. (15) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon
Could Illinois get dislodged from the top seed line? Maybe, but it will probably require it to bow out early in the Big Ten tournament and for either Alabama or Iowa to claim a conference tournament title. … With Collin Gillespie done for the season with a knee injury and Justin Moore doubtful for the Big East tournament with a severely sprained ankle, it’s going to be a challenge for Villanova to do much to improve its seeding this week. … For those wondering, Virginia Tech and VCU have met just once in the last 26 years, with VCU cruising to an 82-52 victory in 2013 in Richmond in the short-lived but wonderfully well-intentioned Governor’s Holiday Hoops Classic. …
Cleveland State, which had lost at least 21 games in each of the last five seasons, claimed the Horizon League title on Tuesday. Second-year coach Dennis Gates has the Vikings in their third NCAA tournament and first since 2009. … Oregon is 19-6 with three titles in nine Pac-12 tournaments under Dana Altman. It’s best not to underestimate the Ducks in Las Vegas this week. … Mount St. Mary’s earned its sixth NCAA trip and first since 2017 by knocking off host Bryant in the Northeast final on Tuesday. The Mount is 7-3 in conference tournament road games since 2013, including two victories this year.
South Region
(1) BIG 12/Baylor vs. (16) SUN BELT/Appalachian State-MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/North Carolina A&T
(8) Florida vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/St. Bonaventure
(5) Florida State vs. (12) Colorado State/Drake
(4) Purdue vs. (13) CONFERENCE USA/Western Kentucky
(3) Arkansas vs. (14) OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State
(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Wichita State
(7) Oklahoma vs. (10) Georgia Tech
(2) Iowa vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Hartford
Florida’s resume in practice isn’t as good as it is on paper, but it still won at West Virginia and owns victories over Tennessee and LSU. The Gators will probably be wearing a home jersey in their first postseason game. … One of the more underappreciated programs historically is Western Kentucky, which has made 23 NCAA tournament trips. Its current eight-year NCAA drought is its longest since the 20-year span between appearances in 1940 and 1960. … Tin-foil hat alert! Colorado State-Drake is precisely the sort of matchup some would accuse the selection committee of intentionally creating, since Colorado State coach Niko Medved arrived in Fort Collins from Drake back in 2018. In truth, the committee spends nearly all of its time on selecting and seeding the field, not on concocting pairings with a backstory ready-made for TV. …
Arkansas last earned a No. 3 seed or better in 1995, when it was a No. 2 seed and reached the national title game. The Razorbacks could plausibly get to the No. 2 line with an SEC tournament title. … Wichita State would be an interesting at-large case if it doesn’t win the American Athletic tournament mainly because of the smaller sample size of games. The Shockers (15-4) have done nothing remotely silly and own victories over Houston and Mississippi. Barring an absurd loss (i.e. not in their quarterfinal), here’s guessing they’ll slip in.
Midwest Region
(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) SOUTHWESTERN/Prairie View A&M
(8) Clemson vs. (9) Connecticut
(5) Southern California vs. (12) MID-AMERICAN/Toledo
(4) Texas vs. (13) ATLANTIC SUN/Liberty
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) BIG SKY/Southern Utah
(6) BYU vs. (11) Michigan State
(7) Missouri vs. (10) Rutgers
(2) Houston vs. (15) SUMMIT/Oral Roberts
Southern California is a bit of a metric darling, and margin of victory plays a role. The Trojans went 13-2 at home, with 10 of the victories by double figures. … An underrated component of Texas’ profile is a 9-2 record away from Austin (6-2 road, 3-0 neutral). True, road games aren’t the same this season as they normally are, but it should still be an asset when the Longhorns’ seeding is discussed. …
BYU looked fabulous for 20 minutes against Gonzaga in the WCC final, but the scoreboard grades on a 40-minute curve. Expect the Cougars to end up as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed come Sunday. … Oral Roberts blew a 25-point halftime lead in the Summit League final but recovered to defeat North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles are the first non-Dakota team to win the Summit since Oakland in 2011. … How far has Rutgers come? It has 21 conference victories over the last two seasons, including a 10-10 mark this season. It had won 21 league games over the previous six seasons combined.
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